Economic Indicators - What The Jobless Claims Report Means To The Economy

One of the most important benchmarks ofmake it difficult for companies to find qualified
economic health is the employment of a countriesemployees. This means businesses might have to
work force. This economic data in the U.S. can bepay overtime wages to their current staff and/or
found in the jobless claims report. All economicoffer higher salaries to entice workers away from
indicators are watched closely by economists andother companies. This creates an overall increase
the jobless report is no different. The workforcein wage costs, a driving factor in inflation.
is one of the three main components of everyOf course the Federal Reserve keeps a very
economy which makes jobless claims one of theclose eye on wage inflation so they can make a
most scrutinized and newsworthy report of anymove on interest rates if unemployment dips too
of the economic indicators. The jobless claimsfar. If the Federal Reserve does raise interest
report provides detailed data of Americans filingrates this can weaken investing markets and may
for unemployment benefits for the first time.cause stocks and bonds to fall. A relatively
Also known as The Employment Situationalhealthy unemployment number signifies not only a
Summary the jobless claims report is released bystrong economy but also a strong business
the U.S. Department of Labor: Employment andclimate in which companies are hiring qualified
Training Administration. The number is deliveredemployees as needed and business managers
every week on Thursday morning before thehave confidence in their future business outlook.
stock market opens. Each report covers dataAll else being equal, this should cause both the
from the previous week up until the laststock market and bond market to rise.
Saturday. It also provides revisions from the priorThe frequency of this report has both positive
report.and negative aspects to it from an investors point
This report is popular with investors because ofof view. Since it is delivered every week it
its straightforward nature. It simply tracks initialprovides a near real time window into the
filings by individuals for unemployment benefits.employment component of the U.S. economy.
The report is seasonally adjusted to account forThis is a double edge sword as most traders will
holidays, harvests and similar occasions where theuse a four week moving average to smooth the
time of year may skew actual employmentvolatility of such a frequent report. Most traders
status. The current release provides numbers onview sustained changes of 30,000 claims or more
the states which have the biggest changes, whileduring the calculation of the moving average as
the revised version from the previous week willstatistically indicative of real job growth or loss.
show a state by state breakdown.In addition to the week to week volatility the
Another factor that makes the report easy tojobless claims report may get a lot of attention
understand and adds to its popularity, is theor traders may ignore it completely. It is
straightforward view that a low unemploymentcontingent on what is happening in the markets
number means a strong economy. For the mostthat week and the overall uncertainty regarding
part that line of thinking has proven to be athe overall economy. If people are frantically
relatively accurate one, however there can belooking for direction in the economy, then the
problems when the unemployment rate falls to aunemployment report will be closely watched and
very low number. This low jobless rate alsoits issuance may be heavily traded.
means there are fewer job seekers and it may